An article published on Brookings of 22 May, 2014 here argues that neither Russia nor the West could afford having UKraine exclusively. Russia is forking out some $10 billion subsidies a year for eastern Ukraine in buying its Soviet-era manufactures (railway cars). Much larger amounts would be needed to support the rest of the country if they were cut off from its western markets. Likewise, according to the article, the West may need to fork out some $274 billion a year to wean East Ukraine from economic dependence on Russia.

In a tabular form, various hypothetical outcomes are presented from one extreme – full Western integration of Ukraine, to the other – full Russian absorption. Considering the various costs involved, the article argues that the most likely outcome would be a Finlandized and federalized albeit sovereign Ukraine subject to varying degrees of Russian influence and devoid of any threat to Russia (i.e. any leaning towards NATO).

The Brookings article's prognosis apears credible. As it points out, the dice is more loaded in favour of Russia as it can resort to import substitution for Ukraine's defence export to Russia.

However, the article's arguments are based on the premise of exclusive integration on either side. This extreme hypothesis is not necessarily borne out by reality. For example, Germany remains extremely wary of sanctions against Russia as Germany accoutns for nearly a third of EU's exports to Russia where Germany is also a large investor. Click here Some 300,000 German jobs are at stake. So as Russia is already inextricably linked to Western Europe, the scenario of Ukraine totally isolated from the West does not appear likely. If so, the costs to Russia of absorbing Ukraine are probably over-estimated. Additionally, if push comes to shove, Russia may simply allow the living standards of West Ukraine to drop and equalize with those in the rest of Ukraine.

Nevertheless, with increasingly nuanced tactics of expressing recognition of Ukraine's latest election results while condoning Russia-friendly activists in East Ukraine, perhaps the "middle scenario" is exactly what Putin is now trying to achieve.