The following are some of the dramatic features of a presentation by Homi Kharas of Brookings Institution June XX, 2011 Click here –
(a) By 2030,size of the middle class in Asia Pacific is expected to grow from 525 million (28% of global total) to 3.2 billion (66% of total) or from 23% of global consumption to 59% (2005 PPP$ terms);
(b) The key two drivers are China and India. In 2009, the global consumption share of the top ten countries was US (21%), Japan (8%), Germany (6%), France (4%), UK (4%), Russia (4%), China (4%), Italy (3%), Mexico (3%), Brazil (3%). By 2020, this is expected to change to China (13%), US (12%), India (11%), Japan (6%), Germany (4%), Russia (3%), France (3%), Indonesia (3%), Mexico (3%) and the UK (3%). By 2030, the share will be dominated by India and China – India (23%), China (18%), US (7%), Indonesia (4%), Japan (4%), Russia (3%), Germany (3%), Mexico (3%), Brazil (3%) and France (3%).
(c) China's middle class is already the world's second largest (after the US) in absolute numbers (157 million consumers) but only 12% of the population. By 2030, this is expected to grow to over 70 % of the population, consuming $10 trillion in goods and services. By 2030, 100% of the population is expected to achieve average income of $100 a day (2005 PPP$).
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