Andrew’s September 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website

Greetings! 

Hong Kong has had a long and fiery summer. Reminiscent of the "butterfly effect", triggered by a Taiwan murder case, an extradition bill intended to prevent Hong Kong from becoming a haven for criminal fugitives has led to socio-political conflagration. The bill's extension to cover extradition to Mainland China ignited a powder keg of pent-up frustrations. These include upward hopelessness of the younger generation, anger with One Country Two Systems increasingly tilting towards One Country, and the government's perceived haughty nonchalance. While the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, diehard militants, seemingly aided and abetted by behind-the-scene politicians and other backers, are holding the city's law and order to ransom. 
 
Preceded by peaceful protests, the same real-time dramas of violent police-confrontation by black-clad, gas-masked militants unfold before a tired and worried city every weekend for nearly three months. Caches of high-explosives were uncovered. Petrol bombs, handy catapults and sharp metal objects are deployed. The police responds with tear gas, beanbag rounds, and arrests.  Hong Kong's parliament chamber was ransacked. The national emblem of Beijing's representative office was defaced. A hoisted national flag was thrown into the harbour. Police stations and staff quarters were attacked, their spouses and kids targeted for harassment.  Hong Kong's international airport was obstructed to a halt. Slogans of "Liberate Hong Kong" and "Revolution of Our Times" appear in banners or sprayed on buildings.  Ten Hong Kong people were recently caught displaying these banners in Tibet. A sense of anarchy prevails.
 
Meanwhile, protesters remain insistent on their "Five Demands": formal "withdrawal" of the recently abandoned and declared "dead" extradition bill, setting up an independent commission of enquiry to look into alleged police brutality, non-application of the crime of "Riot", freeing all arrested protesters, and universal suffrage unconstrained by Hong Kong's Basic Law. The militants are resorting to "flash mob" tactics in a cat-and-mouse confrontation with the police. Students are encouraged to refuse attending classes by way of a "strike", in tandem with calls for strikes by workers and businesses as part of a "civil disobedience" movement. 
 
Conspiracy rumours abound. References to a "color revolution" and a Hong Kong-styled "Tiananmen Square" are becoming more frequent. The People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong's garrison and across the border are on high alert. One Country Two Systems appears on the brink This is compounded by repercussions on Taiwan's presidential election dynamics to Beijing's disadvantage, and by President Trump linking the protests to US-China trade talks. Even the G7 has weighed in, cautioning against violence on both sides. 
 
The community becomes deeply divided on views regarding the protests, even amongst friends and members of the same family. The government has been refusing to meet any of the protesters' demands, until today (4th September). In a televised appearance, Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that the Bill is formally withdrawn. She expands the scope of the exiting Independent Police Complaints Council to look into broader allegations against the police, appointing two additional eminence grises into the Council and drawing on international experts. She also announces actions to reach out to the community for solutions to deep-seated problems.
 
Amid the smoke and mirrors, the following may hopefully offer some perspectives. 
 
Hong Kong 
 
Is a lull in violence in Hong Kong's protests a turning point for the better or for worse? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia, Singapore
Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy  (Live interview with Talking Business on BBC World News) 
Mayhem in Hong Kong International Airport – what can the UK government do?  (Live interview with LBC (London Broadcasting Company) Radio)
Another phase of Hong Kong's protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))
What's behind Beijing's press briefing on Hong Kong (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio) 
Now that Beijing has spoken, what next for the Hong Kong protests? (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio and PressTV)
The Heat: Hong Kong protests with CGTN America, Washington D.C.  (Live TV panel discussion on CGTN America, Washington D.C.
What now, after Carrie Lam declared the extradition bill "dead"? (Live interview on ABC News Radio Sydney
The ins and outs of the storming of Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Live radio interview on BBC The World Tonight and live TV interview on The Brief, ANews TV Channel. Turkey
Real-time storming by protestors of the Hong Kong Legislative Council (Live TV interviews with BBC News and Sky News
Hong Kong extradition issue elevated to G20? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia), Singapore
Hong Kong extradition bill suspended – what now? (Two live TV interviews on Aljazeera English Channel and a synopsis of the bill's background and broader implications
Hong Kong massive protest march against extradition bill (Live radio interview with BBC Newshour on 9 June)
 
Trade war
 
Has the US overplayed its hand on trade? (Op-ed in Project Syndicate
Why the US-China trade war broke down and what's behind it all? (2-part TV interview with Hong Kong International Business Channel)
Trump to China: Deal now or face far worse terms (Live interview with Press TV
 
Huawei – Technology War
 
 
China connects the world: Creation of a Sino-centric or more inclusive world order? (A PowerPoint presentation to British Business Association of Macao)
America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire (National Interest article of 17 June 2019 by Robert Kaplan) 
 
Belt and Road
 
 

Korean Peninsula
 
 
Military
 
US massive arms sale to Taiwan squares with One-China policy?  (Live TV interviews with RT and Press TV
Why US steps up weapon sales to Taiwan? Live interview with Press TV)
 
Kashmir, Hong Kong's status on T-shirts and Macao's future
 
China ‘can’t just stay out’ of Kashmir dispute, will play peacemaker (Commentary on RT Question More and Live TV interview on Indus News, Pakistan
India's sudden cancellation of Kashmir's special status (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News, Pakistan, and commentary on RT Question More
 
Economy and long-term trajectory

China: Learning from mistakes and deficiencies (Feature article in The Global Analyst
 
Sustainable Development
 
Financial Inclusion (Live panel discussion on Backchat, Radio Hong Kong

My coming speaking engagement in Tangier, Morocco

As with the past two years, I have again accepted an invitation as a Sponsored Speaker at the Amadeus Institute's 2019 MEDays Forum in Tangier, Morocco from 13-16 November. I will be speaking on The New Global Disorder and Zero-sum Wars. I will be uploading my presentations on my website in due course. 

Cheer up and chill out

repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He has now returned to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com  

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

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Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

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