Andrew’s May 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 7,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my May 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website

Greetings! 

The US-China trade war seems heading for a truce. While unlikely to end US rivalry on a broad front, it is touted as the "granddaddy of all China deals", addressing an unprecedented panoply of deep-seated concerns with China's trade practices plus robust enforcement mechanisms. Similarly, Europe has woken up from its "naivete" with China. Ditto apparently for the rest of the world with a tidal wave pushing back against the perceived "debt trap" of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been in overdrive doing a good job of stirring up a global "China Scare". 
 
Yet, with its economy stabilizing from headwinds, China seems not to have backtracked from a confident global march. The Belt and Road has gained acceptance from Italy, a G7 country, soon to be joined by Switzerland, a respected neutral country. Meanwhile Greece has expanded China's Central and Eastern European line-up to "seventeen-plus-one". The signature initiative is also making headway in the Arabian Peninsula, the Caribbean and Latin America. 
 
On 5G technology set to define the 21st century, not many European countries have followed America's hymnbook of excluding Huawei. If anything, the all-out blackening of Huawei seems to suggest anxiety with the Chinese tech giant's clear 5G global market leadership.  
 
Clearly China must be doing something right and something wrong. As will be evident from the US-China trade deal, what may be perceived as China's concessions tally with China's critical reform needs in order to realize the China Dream of the "Two Centenary Goals" – to attain a fully-fledged moderately well-off (xiaokang) society by 2021, the Party's centenary, and a world-respected "strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist country" by 2049, the People's Republic's centenary. 
 
There are signs that China is beginning to come to terms with these thorny reforms critical for its onward trajectory. If so, a new era of international relations may unfold, more amenable to "free and fair trade" and multilateralism, notwithstanding rising protectionist tendencies. 
 
Hopefully, the following may offer some fresh perspectives for reading a dramatically changing world, in more sense than one. 
 
US-China trade war
Why is a deal on US-China trade war imminent and what will that mean? (Live TV interview with TRT World)
US-China trade talks moving along but with what realistic outcome? (Live TV interview with Aljazeera English Channel)
US-China trade talks – where to go?  (Live interview with TRT World)
Money Talks – Trade Wars (Live interview with TRT World
 
Technology war
What's so scary about Huawei?  (BBC World Service documentary) 
Huawei's 2018 outsized earnings despite US-led pushback (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel
The Huawei story – why US feels threatened (Live interview on Radio Sputnik)
Huawei takes US to court (Live TV interviews with TRT and PressTV)
China slams US charges against Huawei (Live interview with RT
How US-China technology rivalry is likely to play out in coming years – Huawei and "supersonic trains" (An in-depth analysis)
US's latest pushback against Huawei (Live interview on Radio Sputnik
China to step up its basic research (China Daily article)
 
A digital world
Why 5G is set to change the world and why China is leading  (An in-depth analysis)
McKinsey Global Institute- Value chains, China included, have become less trade dependent and more digitally driven (A Mckinsey Global Institute report)
Impact of artificial intelligence on international trade – Brookings Institution (A Report)    
 
All-out pushback against China
China is facing not just a trade war with the US but an assault on all fronts. Can it survive, and even thrive? (SCMP Op-ed)
Prospect of a New U.S.-China Cold War (An analysis) 
Why US "Freedom of Navigation Operations" in the South China Sea are becoming a "New Normal" (Live interview with PressTV
Is Hong Kong a new source of tension in China-U.S. ties? (TV panel discussion on CGTN
 
Course correction
Course Correction: Toward an Effective and Sustainable China Policy (Commentary on Asia Society Centre on US-China Relations 51-page report) 
US-China trade war may turn out to be a watershed for promising changes (An in-depth analysis)
How US trade war and other efforts to thwart China’s rise have actually accelerated its reform and innovation (An analysis)
US-China trade talks good for both sides? (Live interview with TRT World
China’s New Foreign Investment Law (A China Briefing report)
 
China's trajectory
Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (An in-depth analysis) 
GBA rivalry for human capital changes Hukou game – Ming Pao 15.04.19 (How the hukou reform will be accelerated to create 100 million urban citizens by year end) 
National Plan for structural re-alignment of industries in North East, East, Central, and West regions, November 2018 (An in-depth analysis)
The China Compass Q2 2019 – overview of China's economy (An analytical report) 
Headlines about China’s weak growth are somewhat misleading (A short critique) 
The global economy's second sun  (Global influence of the RMB)
China's busy year in the Arctic (A report in The Diplomat)
US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) 2019 China Military Power report (China's military advances)
 
World economy
Next year, US expected to lose top spot to China as world's largest economy, to be overtaken by India as no.2 by 2030 (Standard Chartered Bank and Brookings Institution reports
Paramount flashpoints in 2019 (Feature article in The Global Analyst
 
World order challenges
What the New Zealand slaughter, the Yellow Vests, hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world (PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen's Group)
What does the New Zealand shooting of Muslims tell us? (Live interview with RT)
Climate change and trade agreements – Friends or foes? (An Economist Intelligence Unit report) 
 
North Korea
US-North Korea deal is possible (temporary standoff notwithstanding) (Live interview with PressTV
Trump says he will leave sanctions on North Korea in place – What next? (Live interview with PressTV)
Does North Korea no longer want to denuclearize?  (Live interview with PressTV)
 
Assange, Venezuela, Iran, and India
Julian Assange's possible extradition to U.S (Live interview with PressTV)
How to deal with the Venezuela situation in UN Security Council (Live interview with RT)
Venezuelans rally as US sees coup bid losing steam (Live interview with PressTV)
Munich Security Conference – Pence accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism (Live interview with PressTV)  
India's Budget 1 February 2019 (Two live interviews on WION TV of India)
 
Cheer up and chill out

repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese.

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He is about to return to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com 

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

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Courtesies

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Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20) 

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

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