(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 7,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is the January 2018 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website.) 

Greetings! May I first wish you a marvellous 2018!  

The year ahead is at a foggy crossroads. Would an iconoclastic, transactional, "America First" President Trump fortuitously cede global power and influence to Presidents Xi and Putin? Would intensifying geopolitical rivalry lead to regional, if not global, war, with or without a nuclear-tipped and defiant Chairman Kim and revisionist Prime Minister Abe?

What is behind President Xi's "New Era Socialism with Chinese Characteristics"? What has become of his supply-side structural reform? How would he resolve China's debt and deleveraging problems? How successful is China becoming an innovative global digital powerhouse?

What challenges and opportunities are emerging from China's global footprint through its Belt and Road Initiative and its ubiquitous presence in a new Africa transformed by urbanisation, digitisation and a rising civil society? 

All these signal probable paradigm shifts. It is increasingly difficult to have a firm grasp of the dynamics to stay ahead of the game. To help see through the smoke and mirrors, the following may hopefully offer a little perspective.

China, Russia and the United States in a new era of East-West strategic rivalry and competition (Implications of the latest US National Security Strategy)

How US pressure may help turn China-Russia strategic ties into alliance (Quoted on RT Online) 

Japan to fit out a new aircraft carrier against North Korea and China threats (Exclusive live TV interview on RT) 

Avoiding War – Containment, Competition, and Cooperation in US-China Relations (An analysis of US-China rivalry including the South China Sea) 

Imagine World War III between US and China (An analysis of US-China hard-power geopolitics) 

Withdrawing From Overseas Bases – Why a Forward-Deployed Military Posture Is Unnecessary, Outdated, and Dangerous (A Cato Institute paper) 

Trump the trouble-shooter – rhetoric and reality (Exclusive live interview on RT) 

US accuses China's Xinhua News Agency of espionage (Live TV interview on RT) 

How Trump's forthcoming visit to China can help forge a better world order (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post of 25 September)

North Korea

North Korea's latest nuclear and ICBM tests – what is to be done? (Exclusive live TV interview on RT) 

North Korea threatens to shoot down US war planes – What does North Korea want? (Exclusive live TV interview on RT) 

How to diffuse the North Korean crisis (An in-depth analysis and a blog post of the Amadeus Institute, a leading Middle East and African think tank)

China's outlook

China 2018 – What it means for the global economy? (An analytical tour d'horizon of global risks and opportunities) 

New Era Socialism with Chinese Characteristics – What does it mean? (Exclusive live TV interview on TRT in Izmir, Turkey) 

The Critical Transition: China's Priorities for 2021 (A Chatham House report) 

S & P downgrade and China's supply-side structural reform (An in-depth analysis)

Belt & Road Initiative

China's Belt and Road Initiative: Opportunities for the Aegean Region (PowerPoint presentation at the Aegean Economic Forum, Izmir, Turkey) 

Between the Lines: China's Belt and Road Initiative (TV panel discussion on Singapore's Channel News Asia) 

Arctic link reveals the full scope of China’s belt and road ambitions  (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) 

China business

Digital China: Powering the economy to global competitiveness (A McKinsey Global Institute report) 

China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership (Research note of BBVA, a Spanish bank) 

Ruble-yuan trade between Russia & China makes dollar odd man out (Quoted on RT Business News) 

China Business – Landscape and Strategies ( A 2018 Routledge book by Dr Hong Liu (Second Edition) (My endorsement on the back cover) 

Technology 2018

What is Hot in Technology Trends 2018 (A report from Global Futures and Foresight)

China in Africa

China should rise to the challenge of a new Africa (Feature article in The Global Analyst, an international business magazine in India)

Lions on the Move: Africa – a continent of challenges and opportunities (An in-depth analysis of an emerging New Africa) 

MEDays Forum 2017 – Tangier, Morocco (A 4-day international forum where I spoke separately on Africa and North Korea)

Saudi Arabia

Understanding Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia: History Or Tragedy In The Making? (Insight by Professor Raj Bhal) 

India

India's Gujarat state election a test of Modi's sustained momentum (Live TV appearance on India's WION) 

Hong Kong

Former Govrnor Chris Patten's visit to Hong Kong (Back chat on Radio Hong Kong) 

Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese. 

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. Please limit details to a one-page PDF document, including key financial data, photo images, contact phone numbers and email addresses. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He now works on private equity with the Marya Group. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

Please email any invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www. andrewleunginternationalconsul tants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices. 

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You are welcome to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www. andrewleunginternationalconsul tants.com  

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