Writing for the Wall Street Journal, Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, outlines in a broader historical context why the Communist Party of China is entering a perilous phase in the light of various political scandals and fallout in recent months, including the latest saga of the escape of a blind activist into the Beijing American embassy. Click here

The writing is clearly on the wall, both inside and outside China, including rising levels of social discontent, the Wukan village confrontation, the Arab Spring and the Occupy Movement. Indeed, both President Hu and Premier Wen have invoked the "D" word openly many times before. But the recent scandals of Bo Xilai and the case of the escaped blind activist are a sobre reminder that political reform now assumes an urgency that can be ignored at the cost of the regime's survival.

Pei is perhaps right about the first two of his three magic numbers when democracy is bound to happen – (a) when a country's GDP per capita reaches $6,000 in PPP terms (b) when a single-party rule has reached its 74th year and (c) when the Party system fails to accomodate more than one-seventh of its elite (by absorbing them into the Party).

As for (a), it is no doubt true that a single-party rule has to accommodate the aspirations of a rising middle-class commitant with the $6000 per capita threshold of economic development. China's GDP per capita is now $8382 in PPP terms. So democracy should be long overdue. In his analysis, Pei counts Singapore as a one-party state as the same party wins elections every time since the country's independence in 1965. But Singapore's GDP per capita in PPP terms has reached $59,711, even ahead of the United States at $48,387. As the situation in Singapore appears to be fairly stable, it seems that the same government can continue to govern well if it keeps on meeting the changing needs and aspirations of most of its people.

As for (b), the 74th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in power will be in 2023, near the time when China will have added 350 million more urbanites (by 2025, according to McKisney's) or when China will have overtaken the United States as the largest economy in the world (in nominal terms) (by 2027, according to Goldman Sachs or by 2018, according to The Economist. Click here

It is therefore likely and indeed imperative that China needs to change her governance in keeping with the times and the make-up of her population and economy.

As for (c), the Communist Party now numbers 80 million members. It is true that not everyone can be a Party member and the vast majority of government officials are Members. But two non-CP members became appointed as Ministers – Minister for Science and Technoology and Mininster for Health. Indeed, with China's red-hot economy, not everyone wants to join the Party as for many the economy holds far greater attractions. So just looking at the size of the CP gives no clue as to how the aspirations of China's univeristy-educated middle class are being met or fail to be met. Indeed, if it is freedom and liberty that a rising middle class seeks, such aspirations are more likely to be met outside rather than inside the Party.

There is no definitive answer as to what immediate moves the Party may take. But what is certain is that China is unlikely to just download the Western system of rival multi-party system which seems to have ended up in political gridlock in various countries, let alone the fact that it also fails to avoid the destabilizing 1% – 99% phenomenon.

In the light of China's recent political fallout, it seeems that the next leadership is likely to push ahead with more open, transparent and fair elections at the village level following the recent Wukan model. That would give about half of China's 1.3 billion people a taste of true democracy.

It is also likely that the judiciary may become more independent, to be appointed at the cental level rather than by local authorities. That would act as a check on some of the abuse of power at the local level.

Third, intra-Party discipline and democracy are likely to be emphasized so as to subject officials, regardless of rank, to greater public monitoring and accountability.

Last but not least, it is likely that the 468-page report ""China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society" undertaken jointly by the World Bank and the Development Research Centre of the State Council will be implemented, ushering in much needed reforms of the state-owned enterprises, more clearly defining local government responsibilities, promotion of civil society, and improvement of governance at all levels. Click here

All of the above, however, may well fall far short of peoples' expectations. But with 170 million peasants still living at no more than $1.25 a day and so much of the economic and political system hanging on a fine balance, China is likely to continue "to feel for the stepping stones in crosssing the river".

More will be revealed when the next leadership eventually takes shape in October 2012. Watch this space.

Best regards,

Andrew