"China's absent princeling is a mystery not a crisis"", opines John Foley, a Reuters Breakingviews columnist, in his article of 12 September 2012 on Breakingviews, an online Thomson Reuters platform.
Foley concludes, "True, a missing crown
prince shouldn’t be taken too lightly. An unexpected disruption to the
leadership process that resulted in internecine struggles would be
damaging both for economic and political stability. And the secrecy
doesn’t bode well for future openness. But assuming order can be
maintained, what counts most for China is “how”, not “who”. Click here
The significance of Xi's continuing disappearance from view can hardly be over-estimated if the cause is much more than a mild personal ailment. True, in the long run, the Party may well be able to find its own feet. But
after going this far in building up a consensus on a leadership successor,
any suggestion of a political struggle at this late stage is bound to unravel the
earlier consensus and unleash potentially convulsive rivalries at a difficult time of
China's domestic economy and external relations. The resultant upheaval may
well be cataclysmic.
Leadership succession at the highest level of the Party doesn't happen by
chance or only during the final run-up to the end of term. The fact that Xi
became the only Vice President in the first place suggests that the Party
consensus happened much earlier that he was meant to be the crown-prince.
For more background, please visit my analysis at "How are China's top leaders selected
and how stable is China's Communist Party?" at Click here
So at this late stage, to open up the whole issue of leadership succession as a result of political discord or more serious illness is
to open a Pandora's Box.
But I agree that Xi’s sudden disappearance is a mystery, not a crisis, though not by downplaying its significance if tainted by politics.
What may suggest that the disappearance was not some kind of a sudden coup is that some
time after the cancellation of Xi's meeting with Hilary Clinton, there was an
official press release about a photo opportunity of his subsequent meeting
with the Danish Prime Minister. Now this could well have been a breakdown in internal
communication. On the other hand, the tight control over press releases about
top leaders means that for a little while, the State Council office might have
thought that the photo-op could still materialize.
If this interpretation is correct, there
is more credence to the conclusion that Xi's disappearance is no more than
recuperation from a mild heart attack or some other mild ailment rather than the manifestation of a coup.The business-as-usual activities of all other
top leaders seem to lend support to this.
In any event, the personal health of China's top leaders is looked after by the most advanced medical facilities of the country. But
if it turns out that the ailment is anything but minor, then a bumpy
ride in the leadership transition may of course be expected.
However, there are also unconfirmed reports that during his absence, Xi has been feverishly engaged with is top aides in helping to finalizing the opening of the forthcoming Party Congress. If so, his health and position as China's new President-in-waiting seem assured and with the shape of the new leadership line-up nearly complete, the date of the coming Party Congress may well be announced sooner rather than later.

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